Look back and forecast of Small Cells

Going through 'End of Year Report' by ThinkSmallCell. A good summary of what happened in 2016 and what we can see in 2017. This picture above from the same report is interesting. As you can see that the average speeds of 3G have decreased while that of 4G has increased significantly. I suspect what has happened is that the newer devices with more advanced 3G capabilities now have access to 4G while the older devices with basic HSDPA support have stayed on 3G, decreasing the average speeds.

You can also read the top 5 posts from this blog here.

Coming back to forecasts, another ThinkSmallCell Analyst Spotlight webinar where Caroline Gabriel from Rethink research and Kyung Mun from Mobile experts provide their insight into where small cells are headed in 2017 and beyond.

Personally, I think with VoWiFi becoming common in our devices, the market for residential and enterprise eventually will decrease. I hear you say what about QoS, well see my 3G4G blog post here.

Here are the slides and video from ThinkSmallCell webinar:

Small Cells Forecasts...

Small Cell Forum published a report last year titled 'Crossing the Chasm: Small Cells Industry 2015' in which draws on the findings of three very different pieces of research to show that, in 2015, for the first time outside the residential segment, small cells moved from trials and smaller deployments, to large-scale roll-outs, and this process of densification will accelerate from 2016 through to the end of the decade. The three studies each targeted a different base of respondents and so the plans and opinions of three key stakeholder groups – mobile operators, the component ecosystem, and enterprises – are all brought together to create a uniquely multidimensional view of the state of the market today. The report is available here to download.

ThinkSmallCell held their annual analyst forecast with Caroline Gabriel of Rethink Technology Research and Joe Madden of Mobile Experts. Their slide deck (with Video at the end) is embedded below. The webinar could also be viewed directly on Youtube here.

Feel free to add your opinion in the comments section on if you agree or disagree with these forecasts and statistics.

Small Cells and WiFi Forecast 2013 - 2019

We had this last set of forecasts back in February, here is a new one up to 2019/20.

The slides and the video is embedded below but I want to mention few things here. The first being that in the last year (or since the beginning of this year) the main change that has occurred is the availability of Voice over WiFi (VoWiFi), either as native or as an app, has become a commonplace. What this means that some small cells deployments are no longer high priority and has been pushed back.

On the other hand some operators are conscious that small cells can provide a better QoS than WiFi hence they are going ahead with Small cells deployments.

Anyway, Slides and Video as follows:

Please feel free to leave your opinions in the comments below.

Small Cells and WiFi Forecast 2012 - 2018

I have been following and having some interesting discussions on a Linkedin group where the main argument is that Small Cells may never really take off as its not a good solution and doesn't make a good business case. I think that kind of discussion is best left to do on Linkedin.

ThinkSmallCell held a webinar recently inviting couple of leading experts to discuss their forecasts for Small cells. The webinar slides and videos are embedded below. Here is a quick comparison of what these independent leading experts had to show:

The main point to note above is that we will hopefully hit 1 million public access small cells probably around/after 2015. My view on why operators have been slow in deploying small cells have been mainly to do with interference management. As we know, Small cells are deployed for Coverage and Capacity and is mainly deployed in Co-channel (same carrier as Macro). If there is no or little coverage, Small cells deployment is not an issue. With higher frequencies, the reception in the houses goes down so deploying Femtocells make sense. With public access small cells, interference (especially on 3G) has to be managed. Surprisingly the practical results for co-channel public access outdoor small cells deployed for capacity purpose is not too bad but there is a no coverage area created as a result of interference at the edge of the small cell. This can cause handover issues.

In LTE-A, Interference techniques like (f)eICIC will help handle these situations so I wont be surprised if there are lots of deployments next year with this interference management capability.

The main thing to note is that WiFi will play a huge part for the connected devices of the future. Most of the small cells deployed with also have a WiFi capability so operators can use that to offload traffic from the cellular on Wi-Fi.

My understanding is that in future we will see Macro cells mainly serve high-mobility connections (including connected cars) and Small cells and WiFi will be used for low mobility and fixed access. I guess the real advantage of cellular over Wi-Fi in this low mobility scenario is that since Wi-Fi is unlicensed, there could be interference from many unpredictable sources. Licensed cellular bands dont generally have this issue.

Anyway, the presentation and video from webinar is embedded below:

Metrocells to help cut energy consumption in telco systems upto 90% by 2020

From a recent news article in Rethink Wireless:

Greentouch believes three key changes will make the difference to cellular networks' power hunger and CO2 emissions levels. These are the use of smaller, low power metrocells to add capacity in dense areas; wider infrastructure sharing; and techniques to match power consumption flexibly to the level of usage of the network at any time.

"We need to make resource usage proportional to the amount of traffic the network is handling," said Klein.

Smart antenna technologies will also be vital. Greentouch revealed first results of a key low energy project in 2011, demonstrating proof of concept base stations that use large arrays of up to 1,000 smart antennas to cut power consumption. The trial found that the energy needed to power each one dropped significantly as more were added, without impacting the range or capacity of the cell. The team was using fairly standard MIMO techniques, but harnessing the arrays not to boost capacity, but to reinforce a single transmission, creating a single strong beam from many low power signals.

There is work to be done on the fixed line side too. Key techniques will be the BIPON (bit interleaved passive optical network) protocol, which enables an optical network unit to recognize data destined for other units rather than processing it.

Greentouch was founded by Alcatel-Lucent's Bell Labs and has harnessed some of that legendary R&D group's expertise in areas like MIMO. Other firms whose labs and scientists are heavily involved include Samsung, Huawei, Freescale, Orange and IMEC. The organization describes its mission as a "five-year quest to achieve sustainable networking". Its members include operators, government agencies and research centers.

Wireless Backhaul and Vendor Landscape

As mentioned earlier, backhaul is one of the biggest challenges for Small Cells Deployment. A recent article in Maravedis Rethink stated the following:

While some people forecast that as many as 80 or 90% of outdoor metrocells will be connected by wireless backhaul, Maravedis-Rethink believes we'll see something closer to today's split in macrocells - about 55% wireless and 45% fiber. Operators will use fiber wherever possible and install short range wireless in the gaps.

In some countries, the availability of fiber is far higher than in others, for example in South Korea, China and Japan. Even in the US, where there is plenty of copper, my guess is that operators will try to reuse existing copper lines to reach the nearest fibre point of presence. As an analyst, it would be quite easy to be aggressive with high wireless backhaul forecasts, but we have to consider that in reality most operators are very conservative about adopting new technology.

So wireless backhaul may be more important for metrocells than for macrocells, but not excessively so.The most important issue for a metrocell is to offload traffic from the macro network. Location is fundamental – the NGMN (Next Generation Mobile Network) Alliance has indicated that cells need to be located within 10 meters of each traffic hotspot – so there really needs to be far more flexibility in backhaul. This is where wireless backhaul becomes more significant.

The role that third party players offering ‘small cells as a service’ such as Virgin and Colt can play is also important. The value of street furniture will increase in the coming years. Those who deployed city Wi-Fi in the past (and failed through lack of monetization) have now realised they were getting access to valuable infrastructure. If you get permission for public Wi-Fi and small cell deployment then that could make the service provider Wi-Fi business more interesting. This gives intermediate players like Virgin, who can deal directly with building, real estate and council owners, an important role to isolate network operators from many/multiple negotiations with location owners. This would make it much more convenient for operators to contract through intermediate players than directly themselves. 

Which wireless technology will be most important?

The issue here is less about technology and more about spectrum. In my opinion, the key requirements are the flexibility to deploy without having to wait for regulatory permission or having to deal with interference from other operators. Taking this into account, the main spectrum choices for mobile operators for small cells are between:

a) Availability of block allocated point to multi-point (PMP) spectrum. These are microwave frequencies, licensed exclusively in a given geographical area. For example, in Europe 26 or 28GHz or even 42GHz. 42GHz is interesting because it can use a smaller antenna and there is more spectrum available.

One reason why PMP spectrum is more interesting for metrocells than for macro is that the cells will be positioned at low heights 3-6m above street level. Streets become canyons with good RF isolation between different parallel streets. This leads to much greater spectrum reuse than has been possible before in macro, ultimately allowing the P-MP spectrum to be used more like point-to-point (P-P) because it avoids interference.

Some of the intermediate players may acquire spectrum in these bands. This will be the first place to look for small cell deployment.

b) V-Band (60GHz) is the perfect complement, especially for those who don't own block allocated spectrum. There is plenty of capacity and minimal interference. Spectrum is lightly licensed (effectively free) and the wavelength provides a benefit of small size antennas. This technology perfectly fits small cell backhaul requirements.

By contrast, the E-Band (70/80GHz) requires a larger antenna to meet the regulator requirements of the radiation mask. The larger form factor cannot be quite so easily hidden and integrated into street furniture. Some advances in size reduction are being achieved though, such as E-Band Communications' E-Link Mini.

c) Non-Line-Of-Sight (NLoS). The main challenge here is availability of spectrum, which must be below 6GHz. Some vendors in the industry such as Fastback Networks are promising high capacity also in NLoS conditions, where throughput has traditionally decreased considerably compared to LoS. If capacity is insufficient, then operators can't ensure the quality of experience. So I will be very interested to see what real-world performance these new vendors can achieve and learn how they have surmounted the capacity constraints in sub-6GHz spectrum. Advanced antenna techniques are certainly among the main tools to achieve this.

Complete article is available here.

ThinkSmallCell has compiled an excellent list of Small Cells Wireless Backhaul Vendors here. The list differentiates between different wireless technologies based on the spectrum and which vendors offer solutions for that band.

More than 5 Million Metrocells to be shipped in 2017

From the Microwave Journal:

Mobile Experts has released a new Small Cell Market Forecast, predicting more than 5 million metrocells shipped in 2017.

Based on weak shipment data during 2012, Mobile Experts predicts slow growth for residential femtocells, at only 12 percent per year. Faster growth will come from capacity upgrades, as mobile operators are pushing hard for high-capacity small cells. The new Mobile Experts forecast predicts that, taken together, outdoor metrocells and indoor capacity nodes will overtake residential femtocell shipments in the 2016 time frame.

"The Asia-Pacific market has led the way in small cells, with more than 100,000 public small cells already deployed in Korea and Japan," explained Joe Madden, Principal Analyst at Mobile Experts. "The Asian market is stretching the femtocell into areas where the small cells are handling capacity effectively for operators like KT, SKT, and NTT DoCoMo. Many other operators around the world will follow this example, as the LTE macro roll-out is completed and capacity tightens up in North America, China, Latin America, Europe, and the Middle East. The bottom line is that small cells are 65 percent less expensive than macro base stations, for adding mobile capacity."

This forecast identifies eight different types of small cells, by architecture and by power level. In this year's analysis, Mobile Experts included low-power Remote Radio Head units, multi-band small cells, and Carrier Aggregation into the forecast, with 33 band combinations identified for inter-band CA. The report breaks down small cell shipments by frequency band and identified 38 frequency bands for small cell deployment.

Complete article can be accessed here.

I have to admit that this is a very optimistic forecast on the number of Metrocells. An earlier post that listed the forecasts from Informa suggested that the number of Metrocells deployed by 2016 would be around 681,000.

The Small Cells Analyst Forecast that I posted on the 3G4G blog, did list a similar forecast from Mobile experts though. The picture above lists the differentiation in Small Cells as viewed by Mobile experts and has been obtained from here.

Infonetics: In-building, outdoor small cells to handle quarter of mobile traffic by 2016 - FierceMobileIT

By 2016, telecom operators expect in-building and outdoor small cells, such as microcells, picocells, and public access femtocells, to handle around one-quarter of mobile traffic, according to the latest research from Infonetics Research. 

A full 86 percent of the operators surveyed by Infonetics plan to backhaul small cell traffic to nearby macrocell sites using a variety of locations, including buildings, streetlights, and traffic and utility poles 

Operators will deploy various forms of microwave technology, such as non-line-of-sight, standard microwave and millimeter wave, although fiber is their preferred backhaul technology.

More info here: Infonetics: In-building, outdoor small cells to handle quarter of mobile traffic by 2016 - FierceMobileIT:

AT&T Shifting to Small Metrocell, Wi-Fi Technology in Project Velocity IP Initiative

AT&T’s wireless network expansion plans include more than 10,000 new HSPA+/LTE cell sites, 40,000 small “metrocells,” and 1,000 distributed antenna systems (DAS) that will improve network performance, broaden Wi-Fi service, and reduce traffic on its traditional cell tower network.

With much of urban and suburban America (and the roads that connect communities) already covered by cellular networks, AT&T has embarked on an effort to more efficiently manage its wireless traffic.

AT&T, the lowest-rated wireless carrier by Consumer Reports, has suffered from a reputation for dropped calls and inadequate network infrastructure investment. The company has sought to correct those mistakes with the implementation of its multi-billion dollar Project Velocity IP (VIP) program that will expand capacity and bring Wi-Fi to new places.

John Donovan, senior executive vice president of AT&T’s Technology and Network Operations division told attendees at the Citi Global Internet, Media & Communications conference in Las Vegas the company was shifting investment towards deploying small cell technology like “metrocells” that provides service to 32 or 64 concurrent users in a small geographic area. These fiber-fed, low-power small cells traditionally cover areas less than 1.2 miles wide, and can be hidden on utility poles or on buildings.

AT&T intends to leverage its U-verse fiber to the neighborhood network to provide much of the expanded network’s backhaul connectivity, at least in cities where AT&T provides landline service.

More information at:
AT&T Shifting to Small Metrocell, Wi-Fi Technology in Project Velocity IP Initiative | Stop the Cap!:

'via Blog this'

Sprint’s Metrocell Move Should Bring 5 Million Shipment Bonanza By End 2013

OYSTER BAY, N.Y.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--In what is a major endorsement for public access small cells, Sprint Nextel has announced that it will deploy Alcatel-Lucent’s lightRadio Cube Metro Cell to densify its Network Vision LTE network. Sprint plans to use lightRadio metrocells starting in high traffic indoor areas such as entertainment venues, transportation hubs, and business campuses.

“This is a significant win for Alcatel-Lucent and its lightRadio technology, but more importantly dispels the notion of small cells being hyped, and that heterogeneous networks represent a major shift in mobile radio network architecture”

“We believe that this type of indoor public-access small cell will become a popular method for operators wishing to preserve spectrum and augment the data capacity of their networks while improving QoS in high traffic areas,” says Nick Marshall, principal analyst at ABI Research. Marshall adds, "We estimate total indoor and outdoor small cell shipment numbers reaching 4.55 million by end 2013, and this announcement validates that view with a high likelihood of shipments reaching closer to 5 million."

“This is a significant win for Alcatel-Lucent and its lightRadio technology, but more importantly dispels the notion of small cells being hyped, and that heterogeneous networks represent a major shift in mobile radio network architecture”, says Aditya Kaul, practice director of mobile networks. Kaul adds, “While we have seen Korean and Japanese operators forge ahead with small cells both indoors and outdoors especially in public spaces, Sprint’s announcement could spark off other operators in North America and possibly Europe to accelerate plans for metro cell deployments.”

While we await more details from Sprint on which markets will receive the lightRadio equipment, Alcatel-Lucent has contracted with Sprint for its LTE macro deployment and upgrade along the East Coast and Southwest. Ericsson and Samsung are the other two vendors on the LTE Sprint Network Vision project, and are known to be supplying macro base station equipment.

More details at:
Sprint’s Metrocell Move Should Bring 5 Million Shipment Bonanza By End 2013, Says ABI Research | Business Wire:

'via Blog this'

US Market for LTE Metrocells to Grow at a 240% CAGR Over Next 5 Years

Under iGR's classification, there are three types of metrocells: those that operate on 3G only, 4G only and those that can operate on both. iGR believes that ultimately the bigger potential market will be for 4G metrocells, albeit by a small margin. 

iGR expects that the total addressable market (TAM) for 4G LTE metrocells in the U.S. will grow at a compounded annual growth rate of nearly 240 percent between 2012 and 2016. 

The TAM for 3G metrocells will initially grow strongly (CAGR over 99 percent between 2012 and 2014) before the opportunity declines in favor of 4G LTE deployments. 

Overall, the combined TAM for both 3G and 4G metrocells grows at a strong CAGR of 50 percent between 2012 and 2016. 

"By 2016, iGR expects the average consumer's consumption of mobile data in the U.S. to increase by ten times over the level in 2011," said Iain Gillott, president and founder of iGR. "The mobile networks must adapt to this vastly increased demand and we see the metrocell, both 3G and 4G versions, as an important part of the solution. Our new study demonstrates the potential for metrocells in the U.S. and shows that the demand in the next five years will far outstrip the number of macro cell sites currently installed."

Complete article here: US Market for LTE Metrocells to Grow at a 240% CAGR Over Next 5 Years:

'via Blog this'

Small Cells deployment report

Today, I went through the Informa's report on small cells. Some interesting points from the report as follows:

Microcells and picocells are already widely deployed in market but on a lower scale compared with femtocells. Metrocells are expected to enter the market during 2012 through operator trials or pilots and expand significantly during 2014 and 2015 primarily for 3G networks in developed markets and LTE in the US market.


...

Although volumes are driven by consumer femtocells, vendor revenues are expected to be bigger with operator-deployed and managed small cells; profit margins are expected to increase in proportion to cell size. Metrocells and microcells are expected to be the most profitable small-cell market segment, although contracts may vary.

...

Picocells 

Picocells are small cells that are already established in the market and widely deployed. Picocells usually refer to cells that are deployed in indoor public areas for coverage improvement, including shopping malls, train stations and airports, as well as also enterprise locations. Picocells are widely deployed, although not on the scale of consumer femtocells, due to their larger coverage area and smaller target market. Picocells typically transmit less than 4W, may cater for more than 32 users and are also single-sector. 

Picocells have also traditionally been a less-intelligent version of femtocells and have acted as typical base stations, although vendors are now including femtocell-developed technologies in these larger units in order to adopt several benefits, including auto-configuration, radio environment awareness and remote support.

Microcells 

Microcells can be regarded as small macrocells and are usually deployed in urban areas that are capacity-constrained. There are also many cases where microcells are deployed in rural areas, where the coverage area of a macrocell may not make sense due to concentrated population in a limited area. 

Microcells are also widely deployed and have been in the market for several years. Typical transmit power can be as high as 40W – but not more – and these units are typically three-sector, unless deployed in light poles or building walls when they are typically single-sector. 

Microcells are typically used when an operator is forced into cell splitting – splitting a large macrocell into many smaller microcells in order to increase the overall system capacity. In other words, microcells are typically the only cell present in an urban location and this is an important distinction between microcells and metrocells. 

Metrocells 

Informa Telecoms & Media considers metrocells as a special type of a single-sector microcell which is deployed primarily in capacity-constrained areas. Metrocells are also deployed as an overlay rather than acting as the primary cellular network, meaning that advanced features are necessary, including self-optimizing (SON) features and auto-configuration.

...

* Microcells will continue to be deployed throughout the forecast period, growing from 602,000 units deployed at end-2011 to 2.8 million at end-2016. This growth is primarily driven by additional 3G cells in urban locations and rural coverage expansion in developing areas. 

* Metrocells are expected to enter the market during 2012 with 31,240 cells deployed by the end of the year, increasing to 681,000 by end-2016. 

* Finally, Informa estimates that 194,000 picocells were deployed in the market by end-2011, a number which will increase to 1.1 million by end-2016.

A discussion on this topic with regards to the numbers is available on 3G4G blog here.

The complete paper is embedded as follows:

Small-cell deployments to be dominated by consumer-driven femtocells from Zahid Ghadialy